Canada expecting uptick in excess deaths amid COVID-19: StatCan

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OTTAWA --
Canada is expecting to see an increase in excess deaths as COVID-19 cases are once again trending upwards, according to Statistics Canada.

Between March and June 2020, as COVID-19 spread across the country, Canada saw over 7,000 excess deaths. That figure refers to deaths that exceed the number that would normally be expected during any given period of time.

While these excess deaths skyrocketed in the early months of the pandemic, there was a brief dip in July, when these figures returned to a normal, pre-pandemic range, which according to Statistics Canada falls around 21,000 deaths per month.

Meanwhile, there were over 170 COVID-19 deaths in August and September respectively — but by the time the first 10 days of October were over, Canada had already reported 244 deaths.

That means there were more COVID-19 deaths reported in those 10 days than were reported in the months of August or September.

"Overall, if the similarities between public health surveillance figures and official death data persist through the resurgence of cases, Canada will likely experience an increase in excess deaths in October," the publication on the Statistics Canada website explains.

Statistics Canada says that these figures can be an important indicator of both the "direct and indirect effects" of the COVID-19 pandemic.

"While the direct effects include deaths attributable to COVID-19, the indirect effects relate to measures put in place to address the pandemic," the agency wrote.

"These measures could cause increases or decreases in mortality, such as missed or delayed medical interventions, fewer traffic-related incidents, and other possible changes in behaviour such as increased substance use."

In its publication, Statistics Canada said it based its findings on "an updated provisional dataset from the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database" as well as the Public Health Agency of Canada's COVID-19 Outbreak Update.

It gave the caveat that this data only includes deaths that provinces and territories have reported to Statistics Canada, meaning reporting delays could impact the figures. The data also doesn’t include Yukon. However, Statistics Canada said they adjusted to account for incomplete data "where possible."

The agency asserted that the figures "provide an important benchmark for understanding the potential impacts of the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic on communities across Canada."

Excess deaths by province

The charts below plot the number of deaths reported by provinces on a weekly basis from the beginning of January until the end of September. The data is provisional, and because of reporting delays, do not reflect all the deaths that occurred during the reference period. Ontario, for example, shows a steep drop in deaths during the summer months of 2020, but that may be partly due to delays in reporting.

Years before 2019 are represented by faint grey lines behind the chart. Numbers have not been adjusted for populations growing year over year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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